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Real Brasília W vs São Paulo W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Real Brasília W
Real Brasília W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
São Paulo W
São Paulo W
4/20/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Brasília W30%
×Draw28%
São Paulo W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Brasília W
1.07
São Paulo W
1.31

São Paulo W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

creates per match

Real Brasília W
1.22
São Paulo W
1.50

allows per match

Real Brasília W
1.11
São Paulo W
0.92

finishing

Real Brasília W+0.00on par
São Paulo W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Brasília W ↓

São Paulo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Brasília W or draw
58%
Real Brasília W or São Paulo W
72%
Draw or São Paulo W
70%

Winning margin

Real Brasília W wins by 2+
12%
São Paulo W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Real Brasília W 1+ goals
66%
Real Brasília W 2+ goals
29%
Real Brasília W 3+ goals
9%
São Paulo W 1+ goals
73%
São Paulo W 2+ goals
38%
São Paulo W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)
42%
São Paulo W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Brasília W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

São Paulo W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Brasília W attack 1.22 + São Paulo W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

São Paulo W attack 1.50 + Real Brasília W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Brasília W scores more
30%
level
28%
São Paulo W scores more
42%

São Paulo W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Brasília W vs São Paulo W

Real Brasília W beat São Paulo W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo in Vila Planalto, Distrito Federal.