Sao Paulo 2–0 O'Higgins: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

O'Higgins

Artur 55'

Luciano 8'

4/14/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sao Paulo64%

×Draw20%

O'Higgins16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchO'Higgins

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.92

Sao Paulo

2.10

O'Higgins

0.92

Sao Paulo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

2.21

creates per match

1.33

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sao Paulo

2.21

O'Higgins

1.33

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.50

O'Higgins

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

O'Higgins →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

84%

Sao Paulo or O'Higgins

80%

Draw or O'Higgins

36%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

40%

O'Higgins wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

88%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

62%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

35%

O'Higgins 1+ goals

60%

O'Higgins 2+ goals

23%

O'Higgins 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

81%

O'Higgins (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 2.21 + O'Higgins defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

O'Higgins attack 1.33 + Sao Paulo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

64%

level

20%

O'Higgins scores more

16%

Sao Paulo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Artur

Sao Paulo · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

Luciano↳ Jonathan Calleri

15'

Felipe Ogaz

17'

Jonathan Calleri

36'

Danielzinho← Marcos Antonio

44'

Luis Pavez Munoz

45+2'

Juan Leiva

46'

Luciano

55'

Artur↳ Jonathan Calleri

58'

M. Maturana← B. Rabello

60'

Martín Sarrafiore

65'

Damián Bobadilla

70'

T. Vecino← A. Castillo

71'

Thiago Vecino

76'

Cauly← D. Bobadilla

76'

P. dos Santos← Lucca Marques

80'

G. Tapia← Luciano

81'

Luan Silva← Jonathan Calleri

85'

C. Morales← F. Faundez

85'

G. Pinto← Felipe Ogaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoO'Higgins

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots15

1.05Expected Goals (xG)1.39

4Corners8

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots15

4On Target2

7Off Target7

2Blocked6

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

445Total Passes416

386Accurate Passes345

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-1.46Goals Prevented-1.46

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs O'Higgins

Sao Paulo beat O'Higgins 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 14, 2026.

Goals: Luciano (8'), Artur (55').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at MorumBIS in São Paulo.

Sao Paulo vs O'Higgins — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs O'Higgins