O'Higgins 0–0 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

O'Higgins

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sao Paulo

5/7/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

O'Higgins48%

×Draw31%

Sao Paulo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

O'HigginsExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.68

O'Higgins

1.17

Sao Paulo

0.68

O'Higgins creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

1.36

0.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

O'Higgins

1.33

Sao Paulo

1.36

allows per match

O'Higgins

0.00

Sao Paulo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

O'Higgins+0.00on par

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

O'Higgins ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

O'Higgins or draw

79%

O'Higgins or Sao Paulo

69%

Draw or Sao Paulo

52%

Winning margin

O'Higgins wins by 2+

21%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

O'Higgins 1+ goals

69%

O'Higgins 2+ goals

33%

O'Higgins 3+ goals

11%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

49%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

15%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

O'Higgins (draw refunded)

69%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

O'Higgins at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

O'Higgins attack 1.33 + Sao Paulo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sao Paulo attack 1.36 + O'Higgins defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

O'Higgins scores more

48%

level

31%

Sao Paulo scores more

21%

O'Higgins at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "O'Higgins will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

F. Gonzalez

O'Higgins · F

8.0

Match Events

26'

Djhordney Ferreira

65'

Artur← Ferreira

66'

Miguel Brizuela

66'

Danielzinho← Djhordney

67'

Nicolás Garrido

74'

T. Vecino← B. Rabello

75'

Juan Leiva

80'

Felipe Negrucci← Cauly

80'

Lucca Marques← G. Tapia

84'

Sabino← Luan Silva

88'

Sabino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

O'HigginsSao

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots7

0.91Expected Goals (xG)0.73

8Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots7

2On Target1

8Off Target5

6Blocked1

10Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

372Total Passes375

309Accurate Passes315

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.60Goals Prevented0.60

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1