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Sao Paulo vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Lucca Marques 90'
G. Aguilar 74'
5/15/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Do MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Paulo46%
×Draw27%
Libertad Asuncion27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo
1.41
Libertad Asuncion
1.02

Sao Paulo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo
1.25
Libertad Asuncion
0.78

allows per match

Sao Paulo
1.25
Libertad Asuncion
1.56

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw
73%
Sao Paulo or Libertad Asuncion
73%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
54%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+
22%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals
76%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
41%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
17%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
64%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
27%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
63%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.25 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.78 + Sao Paulo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sao Paulo scores more
46%
level
27%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
27%

Sao Paulo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
I. RamirezLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · D
7.7

Match Events

16'
Alisson
39'
H. Caballero
45+2'
L. Sanabria
46'
Robert Arboleda← Ruan Tressoldi
57'
H. Martinez← L. Sanabria
57'
L. Melgarejo← A. Fretes
66'
Pablo Maia← Oscar
66'
N. Ferraresi← Ferreira
67'
A. Alcaraz← M. Fernandez
67'
G. Aguilar← C. R. Santa
74'
G. Aguilar↳ I. Ramirez
77'
Luciano← C. Soares
85'
Lucca Marques← Lucas Ferreira
90+2'
Lucca Marques
90+4'
A. Cardozo Lucena← A. Campuzano
90'
Lucca Marques↳ Pablo Maia

Possession

54%Sao

Shots

14Sao

Pass accuracy

52%Sao

Statistics

SaoLibertad
Overview
54%Possession46%
14Total Shots7
0.93Expected Goals (xG)0.67
6Corners4
9Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots7
3On Target1
6Off Target3
5Blocked3
8Inside Box3
6Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
510Total Passes445
462Accurate Passes376
91%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs Libertad Asuncion

Sao Paulo and Libertad Asuncion drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 15, 2025.

Goals: G. Aguilar (74'), Lucca Marques (90').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Sao Paulo.