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Libertad Asuncion vs Sao Paulo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
Andre Silva 83'
Lucas Ferreira 62'
4/24/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Libertad Asuncion22%
×Draw31%
Sao Paulo46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
0.70
Sao Paulo
1.15

Sao Paulo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.00
Sao Paulo
1.00

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.30
Sao Paulo
0.40

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Sao Paulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
54%
Libertad Asuncion or Sao Paulo
69%
Draw or Sao Paulo
78%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
6%
Sao Paulo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
50%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
16%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
3%
Sao Paulo 1+ goals
68%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
32%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
33%
Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.00 + Sao Paulo defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Sao Paulo attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
22%
level
31%
Sao Paulo scores more
46%

Sao Paulo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Andre SilvaSao PauloSao Paulo · F
7.9

Match Events

37'
L. Melgarejo
46'
Lucas Ferreira← C. Soares
49'
Marcos Antonio
56'
A. Alcaraz← M. Fernandez
56'
G. Aguilar← O. Cardozo
61'
Luciano← Matheus Alves
61'
D. Bobadilla← Marcos Antonio
62'
Lucas Ferreira↳ Andre Silva
69'
Andre Silva
71'
A. Fretes← I. Franco
77'
E. Diaz← Wendell
83'
Andre Silva↳ N. Ferraresi
88'
Sabino← Ferreira
90+1'
H. Caballero

Possession

40%Libertad

Shots

11Libertad

Pass accuracy

48%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadSao
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots7
1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.62
6Corners2
10Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots7
3On Target2
5Off Target2
3Blocked3
8Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
349Total Passes529
282Accurate Passes461
81%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
0.36Goals Prevented0.36
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Libertad Asuncion 0–2 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo beat Libertad Asuncion 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 24, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Ferreira (62'), Andre Silva (83').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.