Sao Paulo 2–1 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sao Paulo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

E. Rigoni 90'

D. Bobadilla 7'

N. Ferraresi 90' (OG)

11/23/2025

Serie A · Round 35Vila Belmiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Sao Paulo54%

×Draw25%

Juventude21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.90

Sao Paulo

1.60

Juventude

0.90

Sao Paulo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

0.86

0.94

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.37

Juventude

0.86

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.94

Juventude

1.82

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.12scores more

Juventude+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

79%

Sao Paulo or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

46%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

29%

Juventude wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

80%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

47%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

22%

Juventude 1+ goals

59%

Juventude 2+ goals

23%

Juventude 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

72%

Juventude (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.37 + Juventude defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Juventude attack 0.86 + Sao Paulo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

54%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

21%

Sao Paulo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Rafael

Sao Paulo · G

7.5

Match Events

7'

9'

21'

27'

46'

Lucca Marques← Ferreira

46'

Lucas Fernandes← Giovanny

46'

Enio← Jadson

61'

Marcos Antonio← Pablo Maia

69'

Felipe Negrucci← Luiz Gustavo

69'

Matheus Babi← Marcos Paulo

79'

Lucca

80'

Edison Negueba← Caique Goncalves

85'

Igor FormigaCard upgrade

86'

Igor Formiga

87'

Paulinho← Luciano

87'

E. Rigoni← G. Tapia

88'

D. Giraldo←

89'

Rafael

89'

Damián Bobadilla

90'

E. Rigoni

90'

N. FerraresiOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoJuventude

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots14

1.55Expected Goals (xG)1.14

3Corners8

15Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target5

2Off Target2

1Blocked7

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

432Total Passes406

353Accurate Passes336

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.09Goals Prevented0.09

Discipline

15Fouls18

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2