Juventude 0–0 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sao Paulo

7/21/2024

Serie A · Round 18Arena BRB Mané Garrincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Juventude39%

×Draw28%

Sao Paulo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.07

Juventude

1.21

Sao Paulo

1.07

Juventude creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

1.14

creates per match

0.86

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Sao Paulo

0.86

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Sao Paulo

1.27

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Sao Paulo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

68%

Juventude or Sao Paulo

72%

Draw or Sao Paulo

61%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

17%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

70%

Juventude 2+ goals

34%

Juventude 3+ goals

12%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

66%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

29%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

55%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Sao Paulo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sao Paulo attack 0.86 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventude scores more

39%

level

28%

Sao Paulo scores more

32%

Juventude at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Lucas Moura

Sao Paulo · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

Alan Franco

15'

Gabriel Taliari← Gilberto

18'

28'

35'

51'

67'

67'

Rodrigo Nestor← Ferreira

68'

Luís Oyama← Jádson

68'

Gabriel Inocêncio← Alan Ruschel

75'

Erick FariasGoal cancelled

80'

Wellington Rato← Luciano

81'

Ewerthon← Jean Carlos

81'

Mandaca← Lucas Barbosa

90+7'

Caique Gonçalves

90'

G. Galoppo← D. Bobadilla

90'

N. Ferraresi← Rafinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeSao

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots11

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.49

1Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots11

0On Target2

8Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

320Total Passes542

253Accurate Passes474

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

13Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Juventude vs Sao Paulo

Juventude and Sao Paulo drew 0-0 in Serie A on July 21, 2024.

Sao Paulo controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha in Brasília, Distrito Federal.

Juventude vs Sao Paulo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Juventude vs Sao Paulo