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Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba — Serie A 2026

Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
11/26/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 35Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Sao Paulo48%
×Draw29%
Cuiaba23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo
1.28
Cuiaba
0.80

Sao Paulo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo
1.43
Cuiaba
0.79

allows per match

Sao Paulo
0.82
Cuiaba
1.14

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw
77%
Sao Paulo or Cuiaba
71%
Draw or Cuiaba
52%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+
22%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals
72%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
37%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
14%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
55%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
19%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
67%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.82 · 160 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.43 + Cuiaba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cuiaba attack 0.79 + Sao Paulo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sao Paulo scores more
48%
level
29%
Cuiaba scores more
23%

Sao Paulo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba

Sao Paulo and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in Serie A on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in São Paulo, São Paulo.