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Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo — Serie A 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
7/22/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 16Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cuiaba37%
×Draw30%
Sao Paulo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.11
Sao Paulo
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 161 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
0.97
Sao Paulo
1.00

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.05
Sao Paulo
1.25

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par
Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Sao Paulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
67%
Cuiaba or Sao Paulo
70%
Draw or Sao Paulo
63%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
15%
Sao Paulo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
67%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
30%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
10%
Sao Paulo 1+ goals
64%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
27%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
53%
Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.97 + Sao Paulo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sao Paulo attack 1.00 + Cuiaba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cuiaba scores more
37%
level
30%
Sao Paulo scores more
33%

Cuiaba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo

Cuiaba beat Sao Paulo 2-1 in Serie A on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.