Sao Paulo 2–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sao Paulo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Coritiba

Luciano 45+13' (pen)

A. Franco 30'

I. Slimani 45+6'

9/27/2023

Serie A · Round 22Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Sao Paulo47%

×Draw26%

Coritiba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.01

Sao Paulo

1.46

Coritiba

1.01

Sao Paulo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 20 away

1.42

creates per match

1.07

0.95

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.42

Coritiba

1.07

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.95

Coritiba

1.49

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.07on par

Coritiba+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

74%

Sao Paulo or Coritiba

74%

Draw or Coritiba

53%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

23%

Coritiba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

77%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

43%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

18%

Coritiba 1+ goals

64%

Coritiba 2+ goals

27%

Coritiba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

64%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.95 · 45 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.42 + Coritiba defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Coritiba attack 1.07 + Sao Paulo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

47%

level

26%

Coritiba scores more

26%

Sao Paulo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Franco

Sao Paulo · D

7.6

Match Events

4'

James RodríguezGoal cancelled

6'

Robson

30'

A. Franco

33'

Alan FrancoGoal confirmed

45+9'

NathanPenalty confirmed

45+6'

I. Slimani↳ Robson

45+13'

LucianoPenalty

46'

Matheus Bianqui← A. Samaris

58'

Luan

66'

Lucas Moura← J. Rodríguez

66'

Rodrigo Nestor← Luciano

66'

Alisson← Luan

66'

Diogo de Oliveira← Robson

70'

Victor Luis

74'

J. Calleri← Juan

74'

Pablo Maia← G. Neves

74'

Kaio César← S. Gómez

78'

Natanael← Hayner

78'

Edu← I. Slimani

83'

Jonathan Calleri

83'

Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoCoritiba

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots7

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.75

4Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots7

6On Target2

4Off Target2

4Blocked3

6Inside Box2

8Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

552Total Passes309

472Accurate Passes242

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0