Coritiba 1–1 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Coritiba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sao Paulo

Bruno Gomes 12'

Marcos Paulo 81'

4/29/2023

Serie A · Round 3Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Coritiba37%

×Draw28%

Sao Paulo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Coritiba

1.21

Sao Paulo

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

1.51

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Coritiba

1.13

Sao Paulo

0.86

allows per match

Coritiba

1.51

Sao Paulo

1.29

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.13scores less

Sao Paulo+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

64%

Coritiba or Sao Paulo

72%

Draw or Sao Paulo

63%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

16%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

70%

Coritiba 2+ goals

34%

Coritiba 3+ goals

12%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

70%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

33%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

51%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 20 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.13 + Sao Paulo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sao Paulo attack 0.86 + Coritiba defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coritiba scores more

37%

level

28%

Sao Paulo scores more

36%

Coritiba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Alisson

Sao Paulo · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

Bruno Gomes↳ Alef Manga

34'

38'

46'

46'

58'

Robson← Rodrigo Pinho

63'

M. Araújo← Wellington Rato

66'

Gabriel Vasconcelos

70'

Kaio César

71'

William Pottker← Kaio César

73'

Juan← Rodrigo Nestor

78'

Michel Araújo

80'

G. Neves← Pablo Maia

81'

Marcos Paulo↳ Caio Paulista

84'

Andrey← Bruno Gomes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaSao

Overview

33%Possession67%

16Total Shots22

1.88Expected Goals (xG)1.04

7Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots22

5On Target6

8Off Target9

3Blocked7

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box14

Passing

33%Possession67%

288Total Passes609

211Accurate Passes535

73%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Sao Paulo

Coritiba and Sao Paulo drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 29, 2023.

Goals: Bruno Gomes (12'), Marcos Paulo (81').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (67%) and registered 22 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.

Coritiba vs Sao Paulo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Sao Paulo