Sao Paulo 0–0 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona SC

5/17/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sao Paulo63%

×Draw24%

Barcelona SC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.57

Sao Paulo

1.60

Barcelona SC

0.57

Sao Paulo creates 181% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.56

creates per match

0.49

0.66

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.56

Barcelona SC

0.49

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.66

Barcelona SC

1.65

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Sao Paulo-0.39scores less

Barcelona SC+0.01on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

87%

Sao Paulo or Barcelona SC

76%

Draw or Barcelona SC

37%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

35%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

80%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

47%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

22%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

43%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

11%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

83%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.66 · 6 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.56 + Barcelona SC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Barcelona SC attack 0.49 + Sao Paulo defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

63%

level

24%

Barcelona SC scores more

13%

Sao Paulo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Welington

Sao Paulo · D

7.9

Match Events

55'

Igor Vinícius

57'

J. Corozo← J. Rojas

58'

D. Díaz← F. Gaibor

58'

Leonai← D. Arroyo

62'

Juan← G. Galoppo

62'

Lucas Moura← André Silva

69'

C. Solano← A. Preciado

73'

Luiz Gustavo← M. Araújo

73'

Erick← Ferreira

85'

João Moreira← Igor Vinícius

85'

A. Obando← F. Fydriszewski

89'

Luca Sosa

90+3'

Javier Burrai

90'

Cristhian Solano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoBarcelona

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots8

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.47

8Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target2

5Off Target0

7Blocked6

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

518Total Passes310

458Accurate Passes242

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs Barcelona SC

Sao Paulo and Barcelona SC drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 17, 2024.

Sao Paulo controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at MorumBIS in São Paulo, São Paulo.

Sao Paulo vs Barcelona SC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs Barcelona SC