Barcelona SC 0–2 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sao Paulo

Alisson 64'

J. Calleri 17'

4/26/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barcelona SC36%

×Draw30%

Sao Paulo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.00

Barcelona SC

1.06

Sao Paulo

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

0.97

creates per match

0.87

1.13

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Barcelona SC

0.97

Sao Paulo

0.87

allows per match

Barcelona SC

1.13

Sao Paulo

1.16

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Barcelona SC-0.19scores less

Sao Paulo+0.42scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

67%

Barcelona SC or Sao Paulo

70%

Draw or Sao Paulo

64%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

14%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

65%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

29%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

9%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

63%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

26%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

52%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 0.97 + Sao Paulo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sao Paulo attack 0.87 + Barcelona SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

36%

level

30%

Sao Paulo scores more

33%

Barcelona SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

Ferreira

Sao Paulo · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

J. Calleri↳ Ferreira

45+1'

William Vargas

59'

A. Preciado← A. Obando

59'

M. Araújo← Ferreira

60'

D. Reasco← J. Rojas

64'

Alisson

70'

Leonai← F. Gaibor

70'

G. Cortéz← D. Díaz

78'

G. Galoppo← Luciano

78'

Diego Costa← André Silva

85'

J. Corozo← B. Oyola

87'

Rodrigo Nestor← Igor Vinícius

87'

Juan← J. Calleri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaSao

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots10

0.67Expected Goals (xG)1.19

2Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked3

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

332Total Passes554

278Accurate Passes491

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Barcelona SC 0–2 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo beat Barcelona SC 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Calleri (17'), Alisson (64').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.

Barcelona SC vs Sao Paulo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Barcelona SC 0–2 Sao Paulo