Sao Paulo 2–2 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sao Paulo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Atletico-MG

11/24/2024

Serie A · Round 35MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sao Paulo48%

×Draw27%

Atletico-MG26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.99

Sao Paulo

1.45

Atletico-MG

0.99

Sao Paulo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.58

creates per match

0.98

1.01

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.58

Atletico-MG

0.98

allows per match

Sao Paulo

1.01

Atletico-MG

1.31

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.14scores more

Atletico-MG-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

74%

Sao Paulo or Atletico-MG

73%

Draw or Atletico-MG

52%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

24%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

77%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

42%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

18%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

63%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

26%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 18 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.58 + Atletico-MG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico-MG attack 0.98 + Sao Paulo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

48%

level

27%

Atletico-MG scores more

26%

Sao Paulo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff