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São Paulo U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
6/28/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

São Paulo U2078%
×Draw14%
Mauá U208%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.58
Mauá U20
0.68

São Paulo U20 creates 279% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
92%
São Paulo U20 or Mauá U20
86%
Draw or Mauá U20
22%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
56%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
92%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
72%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
47%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
49%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
15%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
91%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.58

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
78%
level
14%
Mauá U20 scores more
8%

São Paulo U20 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Paulo U20 vs Mauá U20

São Paulo U20 beat Mauá U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.