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Mauá U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
9/5/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round of 32Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2028%
×Draw26%
São Paulo U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.10
São Paulo U20
1.48

São Paulo U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
54%
Mauá U20 or São Paulo U20
74%
Draw or São Paulo U20
72%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
11%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
67%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
30%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
10%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
77%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
43%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
38%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
28%
level
26%
São Paulo U20 scores more
46%

São Paulo U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Mauá U20 2–2 São Paulo U20

Mauá U20 and São Paulo U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.