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São Paulo U20 vs Grêmio U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grêmio U20
Grêmio U20
Cuiabano 34'
3/29/2023Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 5Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

São Paulo U2046%
×Draw23%
Grêmio U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
1.75
Grêmio U20
1.40

São Paulo U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 57 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
1.59
Grêmio U20
1.46

allows per match

São Paulo U20
1.34
Grêmio U20
1.91

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Grêmio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Grêmio U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
69%
São Paulo U20 or Grêmio U20
77%
Draw or Grêmio U20
54%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
24%
Grêmio U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
83%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
52%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
25%
Grêmio U20 1+ goals
75%
Grêmio U20 2+ goals
41%
Grêmio U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Grêmio U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Grêmio U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Grêmio U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Grêmio U20 attack 1.46 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
46%
level
23%
Grêmio U20 scores more
31%

São Paulo U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Cuiabano
78'
William

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

São Paulo U20 0 – 1 Grêmio U20

Grêmio U20 beat São Paulo U20 1-0 in Brasileiro U20 A on March 29, 2023.

Goals: Cuiabano (34').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.