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Grêmio U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Grêmio U20
Grêmio U20
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Pedro Gabriel 73'
Unknown 89', 33', 28', 7', 3'
3/10/2025Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Grêmio U2043%
×Draw23%
São Paulo U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grêmio U20
1.76
São Paulo U20
1.55

Grêmio U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Grêmio U20
1.72
São Paulo U20
1.59

allows per match

Grêmio U20
1.51
São Paulo U20
1.80

finishing

Grêmio U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grêmio U20 or draw
66%
Grêmio U20 or São Paulo U20
77%
Draw or São Paulo U20
57%

Winning margin

Grêmio U20 wins by 2+
23%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Grêmio U20 1+ goals
83%
Grêmio U20 2+ goals
52%
Grêmio U20 3+ goals
26%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
79%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
46%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Grêmio U20 (draw refunded)
56%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio U20 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio U20 attack 1.72 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.76

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Grêmio U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grêmio U20 scores more
43%
level
23%
São Paulo U20 scores more
34%

Grêmio U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grêmio U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
7'
28'
33'
73'
Pedro Gabriel
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grêmio U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Grêmio U20 5-1 in Brasileiro U20 A on March 10, 2025.

Goals: ? (3', 7', 28', 33', 89'), Pedro Gabriel (73').

The match was played at Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva in Eldoraldo do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.