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São Paulo U20 vs GE Osasco U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
GE Osasco U20
GE Osasco U20
R. Felipe 57'
M. Amaral 40'
R. Francisco 8'
Unknown 69'
5/4/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Paulo U2072%
×Draw15%
GE Osasco U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.90
GE Osasco U20
1.18

São Paulo U20 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
GE Osasco U20
1.60

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
GE Osasco U20
2.40

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
GE Osasco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

GE Osasco U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
87%
São Paulo U20 or GE Osasco U20
85%
Draw or GE Osasco U20
28%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
52%
GE Osasco U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
94%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
78%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
54%
GE Osasco U20 1+ goals
69%
GE Osasco U20 2+ goals
33%
GE Osasco U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
85%
GE Osasco U20 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

GE Osasco U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + GE Osasco U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.90

GE Osasco U20 attack 1.60 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
72%
level
15%
GE Osasco U20 scores more
13%

São Paulo U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Francisco
40'
M. Amaral
57'
R. Felipe
69'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

São Paulo U20 3 – 1 GE Osasco U20

São Paulo U20 beat GE Osasco U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 4, 2024.

Goals: R. Francisco (8'), M. Amaral (40'), R. Felipe (57'), ? (69').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.