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GE Osasco U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

GE Osasco U20
GE Osasco U20
FT
2 – 9
HT: 1 – 3
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Unknown 83', 41' (pen)
Lucas Ferreira 90+2'
Enzo Boer 90+2'
K. Faisal 77', 66'
G. Carvalho Carrijo 76'
M. Manso 69'
Paulinho 45' (pen)
R. Francisco 37'
M. Amaral 7'
6/7/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GE Osasco U2019%
×Draw16%
São Paulo U2064%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GE Osasco U20
1.67
São Paulo U20
3.05

São Paulo U20 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

creates per match

GE Osasco U20
2.60
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

GE Osasco U20
4.20
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

GE Osasco U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 84Under: 1684%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 77No: 2377%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GE Osasco U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

GE Osasco U20 or draw
36%
GE Osasco U20 or São Paulo U20
84%
Draw or São Paulo U20
81%

Winning margin

GE Osasco U20 wins by 2+
9%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

GE Osasco U20 1+ goals
81%
GE Osasco U20 2+ goals
50%
GE Osasco U20 3+ goals
23%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
95%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
80%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

GE Osasco U20 (draw refunded)
23%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GE Osasco U20 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GE Osasco U20 attack 2.60 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + GE Osasco U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

GE Osasco U20 scores more
19%
level
16%
São Paulo U20 scores more
64%

São Paulo U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Amaral
37'
R. Francisco
41'
Penalty
45'
PaulinhoPenalty
66'
K. Faisal
69'
M. Manso
76'
G. Carvalho Carrijo
77'
K. Faisal
83'
90+2'
Lucas Ferreira
90+2'
Enzo Boer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GE Osasco U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat GE Osasco U20 9-2 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2024.

Goals: M. Amaral (7'), R. Francisco (37'), ? (41' pen, 83'), Paulinho (45' pen), K. Faisal (66', 77'), M. Manso (69'), G. Carvalho Carrijo (76'), Lucas Ferreira (90+2'), Enzo Boer (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.