São Paulo U20 8–1 Clube Vital U20: Result & Stats

São Paulo U20

FT

8 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Clube Vital U20

G. Gary 90+3'

Enzo Boer 90+1', 82'

Paulinho 87'

R. Felipe 43'

Basile 17'

M. Amaral 13'

M. Manso 5' (pen)

Unknown 30'

6/1/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Paulo U2085%

×Draw10%

Clube Vital U206%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo U20Expected goals in this matchClube Vital U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.59

0.88

São Paulo U20

3.59

Clube Vital U20

0.88

São Paulo U20 creates 308% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

3.39

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

São Paulo U20

3.39

Clube Vital U20

1.00

allows per match

São Paulo U20

0.75

Clube Vital U20

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Clube Vital U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Clube Vital U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw

94%

São Paulo U20 or Clube Vital U20

90%

Draw or Clube Vital U20

15%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

69%

Clube Vital U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

97%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

86%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

67%

Clube Vital U20 1+ goals

59%

Clube Vital U20 2+ goals

22%

Clube Vital U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

94%

Clube Vital U20 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Clube Vital U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Clube Vital U20 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.59

Clube Vital U20 attack 1.00 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more

85%

level

10%

Clube Vital U20 scores more

6%

São Paulo U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. MansoPenalty

13'

M. Amaral

17'

Basile

30'

43'

R. Felipe

82'

Enzo Boer

87'

Paulinho

90+1'

Enzo Boer

90+3'

G. Gary

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff