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Clube Vital U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Clube Vital U20
Clube Vital U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
M. A. da Silva Junior 43'
Joao 4'
4/27/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Marcos Eduardo Camargo Truvilho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Clube Vital U2016%
×Draw21%
São Paulo U2063%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clube Vital U20
0.86
São Paulo U20
1.95

São Paulo U20 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

creates per match

Clube Vital U20
1.00
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

Clube Vital U20
2.00
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

Clube Vital U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clube Vital U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Clube Vital U20 or draw
37%
Clube Vital U20 or São Paulo U20
79%
Draw or São Paulo U20
84%

Winning margin

Clube Vital U20 wins by 2+
5%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Clube Vital U20 1+ goals
58%
Clube Vital U20 2+ goals
21%
Clube Vital U20 3+ goals
6%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
86%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
58%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Clube Vital U20 (draw refunded)
20%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clube Vital U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clube Vital U20 attack 1.00 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Clube Vital U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Clube Vital U20 scores more
16%
level
21%
São Paulo U20 scores more
63%

São Paulo U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Joao
43'
M. A. da Silva Junior

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clube Vital U20 0 – 2 São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Clube Vital U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Joao (4'), M. A. da Silva Junior (43').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Eduardo Camargo Truvilho in Ibiúna, São Paulo.