São Paulo U20 2–2 Chapecoense U20: Result & Stats

São Paulo U20

FT

2 – 2

Chapecoense U20

11/25/2020

Brasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 14Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

São Paulo U2053%

×Draw23%

Chapecoense U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo U20Expected goals in this matchChapecoense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.11

São Paulo U20

1.77

Chapecoense U20

1.11

São Paulo U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 25 away

1.59

creates per match

0.88

1.34

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

São Paulo U20

1.59

Chapecoense U20

0.88

allows per match

São Paulo U20

1.34

Chapecoense U20

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Chapecoense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Chapecoense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw

76%

São Paulo U20 or Chapecoense U20

77%

Draw or Chapecoense U20

47%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

29%

Chapecoense U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

83%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

53%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

26%

Chapecoense U20 1+ goals

67%

Chapecoense U20 2+ goals

30%

Chapecoense U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

69%

Chapecoense U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Chapecoense U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Chapecoense U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chapecoense U20 attack 0.88 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more

53%

level

23%

Chapecoense U20 scores more

24%

São Paulo U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff