Chapecoense U20 2–2 São Paulo U20: Result & Stats

Chapecoense U20

FT

2 – 2

São Paulo U20

Unknown 63', 58'

Caue 88'

Joao Adriano 68'

10/12/2021

Brasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 19Centro de Treinamentos da Chapecoense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chapecoense U2037%

×Draw22%

São Paulo U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense U20Expected goals in this matchSão Paulo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.84

Chapecoense U20

1.74

São Paulo U20

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 59 away

1.68

creates per match

1.59

2.09

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Chapecoense U20

1.68

São Paulo U20

1.59

allows per match

Chapecoense U20

2.09

São Paulo U20

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapecoense U20+0.00on par

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chapecoense U20 or draw

59%

Chapecoense U20 or São Paulo U20

78%

Draw or São Paulo U20

63%

Winning margin

Chapecoense U20 wins by 2+

19%

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Chapecoense U20 1+ goals

82%

Chapecoense U20 2+ goals

52%

Chapecoense U20 3+ goals

25%

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

84%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

55%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense U20 (draw refunded)

47%

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense U20 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense U20 attack 1.68 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.74

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Chapecoense U20 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chapecoense U20 scores more

37%

level

22%

São Paulo U20 scores more

41%

São Paulo U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

63'

68'

Joao Adriano

88'

Caue

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff