Sao Paulo U17 2–1 Fluminense U17: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo U17

FT

2 – 1

Fluminense U17

7/16/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 3Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sao Paulo U1740%

×Draw25%

Fluminense U1735%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Paulo U17Expected goals in this matchFluminense U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.40

Sao Paulo U17

1.50

Fluminense U17

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

1.30

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17

1.50

Fluminense U17

1.50

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17

1.30

Fluminense U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw

65%

Sao Paulo U17 or Fluminense U17

75%

Draw or Fluminense U17

60%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

19%

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

78%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

44%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

19%

Fluminense U17 1+ goals

75%

Fluminense U17 2+ goals

41%

Fluminense U17 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

53%

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

40%

level

25%

Fluminense U17 scores more

35%

Sao Paulo U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff