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Fluminense U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
Wesley Nata 78'
6/3/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Proletário Guilherme da Silveira Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fluminense U1750%
×Draw24%
Sao Paulo U1726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense U17
1.72
Sao Paulo U17
1.18

Fluminense U17 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fluminense U17
2.14
Sao Paulo U17
1.59

allows per match

Fluminense U17
0.76
Sao Paulo U17
1.29

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par
Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw
74%
Fluminense U17 or Sao Paulo U17
76%
Draw or Sao Paulo U17
50%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
27%
Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals
82%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
51%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
25%
Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
69%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
33%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
66%
Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more
50%
level
24%
Sao Paulo U17 scores more
26%

Fluminense U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'
Wesley Nata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Fluminense U17 1–0 Sao Paulo U17

Fluminense U17 beat Sao Paulo U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 3, 2025.

Goals: Wesley Nata (78').

The match was played at Estádio Proletário Guilherme da Silveira Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.