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Sao Paulo U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
R. W. Andrade Silva 74'
J. Brenno 55'
L. Guilherme 22'
E. Caes 57'
Jonatas 25'
5/20/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sao Paulo U1742%
×Draw23%
Atlético Mineiro U1735%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo U17
1.73
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.50
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.86

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.30
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.95

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw
65%
Sao Paulo U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17
77%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17
58%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
82%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
52%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
25%
Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
54%
Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more
42%
level
23%
Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
35%

Sao Paulo U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
L. Guilherme
25'
Jonatas
55'
J. Brenno
57'
E. Caes
74'
R. W. Andrade Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Paulo U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17

Sao Paulo U17 beat Atlético Mineiro U17 3-2 in Brasileiro U17 on May 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Guilherme (22'), Jonatas (25'), J. Brenno (55'), E. Caes (57'), R. W. Andrade Silva (74').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.