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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
7/22/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 4Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1744%
×Draw22%
Sao Paulo U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.88
Sao Paulo U17
1.61

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Sao Paulo U17
1.59

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Sao Paulo U17
1.29

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
67%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Sao Paulo U17
78%
Draw or Sao Paulo U17
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
24%
Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
29%
Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
80%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
48%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
57%
Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
44%
level
22%
Sao Paulo U17 scores more
33%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Atlético Mineiro U17 3–2 Sao Paulo U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat Sao Paulo U17 3-2 in Brasileiro U17 on July 22, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Gregorão in Contagem, Minas Gerais.