Sao Paulo U17 1–1 Athletico PR U17: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Athletico PR U17

5/29/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sao Paulo U1741%

×Draw24%

Athletico PR U1735%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Paulo U17Expected goals in this matchAthletico PR U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.45

Sao Paulo U17

1.60

Athletico PR U17

1.45

Sao Paulo U17 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

1.59

1.30

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17

1.50

Athletico PR U17

1.59

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17

1.30

Athletico PR U17

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Athletico PR U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw

65%

Sao Paulo U17 or Athletico PR U17

76%

Draw or Athletico PR U17

59%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

21%

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

80%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

47%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

22%

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals

77%

Athletico PR U17 2+ goals

42%

Athletico PR U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

54%

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Athletico PR U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Athletico PR U17 attack 1.59 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

41%

level

24%

Athletico PR U17 scores more

35%

Sao Paulo U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff