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Sao Paulo U17 vs Athletico PR U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
Tiago 90+2'
Renan 48'
L. Guilherme 16'
Bruno Braga 62'
Italo 55'
3/25/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · 2nd RoundCentro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Paulo U1734%
×Draw19%
Athletico PR U1747%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo U17
2.13
Athletico PR U17
2.50

Athletico PR U17 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17
3.00
Athletico PR U17
3.75

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.25
Athletico PR U17
1.25

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par
Athletico PR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 84Under: 1684%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 81No: 1981%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Athletico PR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw
53%
Sao Paulo U17 or Athletico PR U17
81%
Draw or Athletico PR U17
66%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
18%
Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
88%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
63%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
35%
Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
92%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
71%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
42%
Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Athletico PR U17 away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 3.00 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Athletico PR U17 attack 3.75 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more
34%
level
19%
Athletico PR U17 scores more
47%

Athletico PR U17 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
L. Guilherme
48'
Renan
55'
Italo
62'
Bruno Braga
90+2'
Tiago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Sao Paulo U17 3–2 Athletico PR U17

Sao Paulo U17 beat Athletico PR U17 3-2 in Copa do Brasil U17 on March 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Guilherme (16'), Renan (48'), Italo (55'), Bruno Braga (62'), Tiago (90+2').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.