São Luiz 3–2 Próspera Criciuma: Result & Stats

São Luiz

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Próspera Criciuma

5/22/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio 19 de Outubro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

São Luiz47%

×Draw31%

Próspera Criciuma22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São LuizExpected goals in this matchPróspera Criciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.70

São Luiz

1.17

Próspera Criciuma

0.70

São Luiz creates 67% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

1.21

creates per match

0.43

0.97

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

São Luiz

1.21

Próspera Criciuma

0.43

allows per match

São Luiz

0.97

Próspera Criciuma

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Luiz+0.00on par

Próspera Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Luiz ↓

Próspera Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

São Luiz or draw

78%

São Luiz or Próspera Criciuma

69%

Draw or Próspera Criciuma

53%

Winning margin

São Luiz wins by 2+

21%

Próspera Criciuma wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

São Luiz 1+ goals

69%

São Luiz 2+ goals

33%

São Luiz 3+ goals

11%

Próspera Criciuma 1+ goals

50%

Próspera Criciuma 2+ goals

16%

Próspera Criciuma 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

São Luiz (draw refunded)

68%

Próspera Criciuma (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Luiz at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Próspera Criciuma away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Luiz attack 1.21 + Próspera Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Próspera Criciuma attack 0.43 + São Luiz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

São Luiz scores more

47%

level

31%

Próspera Criciuma scores more

22%

São Luiz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "São Luiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff