Próspera Criciuma 2–2 São Luiz: Result & Stats

Próspera Criciuma

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

São Luiz

6/12/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Próspera Criciuma30%

×Draw27%

São Luiz42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Próspera CriciumaExpected goals in this matchSão Luiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.32

Próspera Criciuma

1.07

São Luiz

1.32

São Luiz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

0.86

creates per match

0.93

1.71

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Próspera Criciuma

0.86

São Luiz

0.93

allows per match

Próspera Criciuma

1.71

São Luiz

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Próspera Criciuma+0.00on par

São Luiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Próspera Criciuma ↓

São Luiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Próspera Criciuma or draw

58%

Próspera Criciuma or São Luiz

73%

Draw or São Luiz

70%

Winning margin

Próspera Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

São Luiz wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Próspera Criciuma 1+ goals

66%

Próspera Criciuma 2+ goals

29%

Próspera Criciuma 3+ goals

9%

São Luiz 1+ goals

73%

São Luiz 2+ goals

38%

São Luiz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Próspera Criciuma (draw refunded)

42%

São Luiz (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Próspera Criciuma at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

São Luiz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Próspera Criciuma attack 0.86 + São Luiz defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

São Luiz attack 0.93 + Próspera Criciuma defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Próspera Criciuma scores more

30%

level

27%

São Luiz scores more

42%

São Luiz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Luiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff