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São Luiz vs Pelotas — Serie D 2018

São Luiz
São Luiz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pelotas
Pelotas
10/10/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio 19 de Outubro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

São Luiz24%
×Draw31%
Pelotas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Luiz
0.75
Pelotas
1.13

Pelotas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

creates per match

São Luiz
1.21
Pelotas
1.29

allows per match

São Luiz
0.97
Pelotas
0.29

finishing

São Luiz+0.00on par
Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Luiz ↓

Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

São Luiz or draw
55%
São Luiz or Pelotas
69%
Draw or Pelotas
76%

Winning margin

São Luiz wins by 2+
7%
Pelotas wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

São Luiz 1+ goals
53%
São Luiz 2+ goals
17%
São Luiz 3+ goals
4%
Pelotas 1+ goals
68%
Pelotas 2+ goals
31%
Pelotas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

São Luiz (draw refunded)
35%
Pelotas (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Luiz at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Pelotas away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Luiz attack 1.21 + Pelotas defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.75

Pelotas attack 1.29 + São Luiz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

São Luiz scores more
24%
level
31%
Pelotas scores more
45%

Pelotas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: São Luiz 0–0 Pelotas

São Luiz and Pelotas drew 0-0 in Serie D on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio 19 de Outubro in Ijuí, Rio Grande do Sul.