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Pelotas vs São Luiz — Serie D 2018

Pelotas
Pelotas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
São Luiz
São Luiz
10/31/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 10Estádio Boca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pelotas46%
×Draw26%
São Luiz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelotas
1.50
São Luiz
1.11

Pelotas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pelotas
1.71
São Luiz
0.93

allows per match

Pelotas
1.29
São Luiz
1.28

finishing

Pelotas+0.00on par
São Luiz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelotas ↓

São Luiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pelotas or draw
72%
Pelotas or São Luiz
74%
Draw or São Luiz
54%

Winning margin

Pelotas wins by 2+
23%
São Luiz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pelotas 1+ goals
78%
Pelotas 2+ goals
44%
Pelotas 3+ goals
19%
São Luiz 1+ goals
67%
São Luiz 2+ goals
30%
São Luiz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pelotas (draw refunded)
62%
São Luiz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelotas at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

São Luiz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelotas attack 1.71 + São Luiz defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

São Luiz attack 0.93 + Pelotas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pelotas scores more
46%
level
26%
São Luiz scores more
28%

Pelotas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelotas vs São Luiz

São Luiz beat Pelotas 2-1 in Serie D on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Boca do Lobo in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul.