São Luiz 1–0 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats

São Luiz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brasil DE Pelotas

Da Silva 32'

5/10/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio 19 de Outubro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

São Luiz46%

×Draw29%

Brasil DE Pelotas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São LuizExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.81

São Luiz

1.24

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.81

São Luiz creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.17

creates per match

0.69

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

São Luiz

1.17

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.69

allows per match

São Luiz

0.93

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Luiz+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Luiz ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

São Luiz or draw

76%

São Luiz or Brasil DE Pelotas

71%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

54%

Winning margin

São Luiz wins by 2+

21%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

São Luiz 1+ goals

71%

São Luiz 2+ goals

35%

São Luiz 3+ goals

13%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

56%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

19%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

São Luiz (draw refunded)

66%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Luiz at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Luiz attack 1.17 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + São Luiz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

São Luiz scores more

46%

level

29%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

24%

São Luiz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "São Luiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Da Silva

São

Brasil

⚽

Manager: Cristian de Souza

São Luiz substitutes

WandinhoDiegoHenriqueSodréAquinoMonteiroFabianoMartinsFerrazBaggioRocha

Manager: Emerson Cris

Brasil DE Pelotas substitutes

IagoNunesDiasKauêMaranhãoGobettiArturLucasMarcelDias

Match Recap: São Luiz vs Brasil DE Pelotas

São Luiz beat Brasil DE Pelotas 1-0 in Serie D on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Da Silva (32').

The match was played at Estádio 19 de Outubro in Ijuí, Rio Grande do Sul.

São Luiz vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: São Luiz vs Brasil DE Pelotas