Brasil DE Pelotas 0–1 São Luiz: Result & Stats

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

São Luiz

Luiz Henrique 88'

Roberto Baggio 46'

7/6/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas46%

×Draw28%

São Luiz26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchSão Luiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.90

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.31

São Luiz

0.90

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.34

creates per match

0.93

0.86

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.34

São Luiz

0.93

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.86

São Luiz

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

São Luiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

São Luiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

74%

Brasil DE Pelotas or São Luiz

72%

Draw or São Luiz

54%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

21%

São Luiz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

73%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

38%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

14%

São Luiz 1+ goals

59%

São Luiz 2+ goals

23%

São Luiz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

64%

São Luiz (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

São Luiz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.34 + São Luiz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

São Luiz attack 0.93 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

46%

level

28%

São Luiz scores more

26%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Roberto Baggio

88'

Luiz Henrique

Brasil

São

Manager: Emerson Cris

Manager: Cristian de Souza