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Sao Luis vs Pinheiro — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pinheiro
Pinheiroadvanced
7/15/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Luis48%
×Draw27%
Pinheiro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
1.38
Pinheiro
0.92

Sao Luis creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
Pinheiro
1.00

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
Pinheiro
0.50

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
75%
Sao Luis or Pinheiro
73%
Draw or Pinheiro
52%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
23%
Pinheiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
75%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
40%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
16%
Pinheiro 1+ goals
60%
Pinheiro 2+ goals
23%
Pinheiro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
65%
Pinheiro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Pinheiro away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Pinheiro defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pinheiro attack 1.00 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sao Luis scores more
48%
level
27%
Pinheiro scores more
25%

Sao Luis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Sao Luis 0–1 Pinheiro

Pinheiro beat Sao Luis 1-0 in Maranhense - 2 on July 15, 2026.