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Pinheiro vs Sao Luis — Maranhense - 2 2026

Pinheiro
Pinheiro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Luis
Sao Luis
7/11/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pinheiro30%
×Draw24%
Sao Luis46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinheiro
1.30
Sao Luis
1.65

Sao Luis creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Pinheiro
1.00
Sao Luis
1.80

allows per match

Pinheiro
1.50
Sao Luis
1.60

finishing

Pinheiro+0.00on par
Sao Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinheiro ↓

Sao Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pinheiro or draw
54%
Pinheiro or Sao Luis
76%
Draw or Sao Luis
70%

Winning margin

Pinheiro wins by 2+
13%
Sao Luis wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pinheiro 1+ goals
73%
Pinheiro 2+ goals
37%
Pinheiro 3+ goals
14%
Sao Luis 1+ goals
81%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
49%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pinheiro (draw refunded)
40%
Sao Luis (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinheiro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Sao Luis away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinheiro attack 1.00 + Sao Luis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sao Luis attack 1.80 + Pinheiro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pinheiro scores more
30%
level
24%
Sao Luis scores more
46%

Sao Luis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinheiro vs Sao Luis

Pinheiro and Sao Luis drew 1-1 in Maranhense - 2 on July 11, 2026.