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Sao Luis vs IAPE — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IAPE
IAPE
11/5/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sao Luis41%
×Draw28%
IAPE31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
1.29
IAPE
1.08

Sao Luis creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
IAPE
1.33

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
IAPE
0.33

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
IAPE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

IAPE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
69%
Sao Luis or IAPE
72%
Draw or IAPE
59%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
19%
IAPE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
72%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
37%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
14%
IAPE 1+ goals
66%
IAPE 2+ goals
29%
IAPE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
57%
IAPE (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

IAPE away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + IAPE defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

IAPE attack 1.33 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sao Luis scores more
41%
level
28%
IAPE scores more
31%

Sao Luis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Luis 1 – 1 IAPE

Sao Luis and IAPE drew 1-1 in Maranhense - 2 on November 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.