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IAPE vs Sao Luis — Maranhense - 2 2026

IAPE
IAPE
FT
6 – 1
HT: 6 – 1
Sao Luis
Sao Luis
10/20/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IAPE69%
×Draw17%
Sao Luis14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IAPE
2.67
Sao Luis
1.15

IAPE creates 132% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

IAPE
3.75
Sao Luis
1.80

allows per match

IAPE
0.50
Sao Luis
1.60

finishing

IAPE+0.00on par
Sao Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IAPE ↓

Sao Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

IAPE or draw
86%
IAPE or Sao Luis
83%
Draw or Sao Luis
31%

Winning margin

IAPE wins by 2+
48%
Sao Luis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

IAPE 1+ goals
93%
IAPE 2+ goals
74%
IAPE 3+ goals
49%
Sao Luis 1+ goals
68%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
32%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IAPE (draw refunded)
83%
Sao Luis (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IAPE at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Sao Luis away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IAPE attack 3.75 + Sao Luis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.67

Sao Luis attack 1.80 + IAPE defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

IAPE scores more
69%
level
17%
Sao Luis scores more
14%

IAPE at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IAPE 6 – 1 Sao Luis

IAPE beat Sao Luis 6-1 in Maranhense - 2 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.