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Sao Jose vs Sao Bento — Serie D 2026

Sao Jose
Sao Jose
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Bento
Sao Bento
Rogério Campos 90'
7/17/2016Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio do Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sao Jose42%
×Draw33%
Sao Bento25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose
1.00
Sao Bento
0.70

Sao Jose creates 43% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sao Jose
1.21
Sao Bento
0.60

allows per match

Sao Jose
0.79
Sao Bento
0.80

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par
Sao Bento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 76Over: 2476%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 68Yes: 3268%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

Sao Bento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw
75%
Sao Jose or Sao Bento
67%
Draw or Sao Bento
58%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+
16%
Sao Bento wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals
63%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
26%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
8%
Sao Bento 1+ goals
50%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
16%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)
63%
Sao Bento (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Sao Bento away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 1.21 + Sao Bento defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sao Bento attack 0.60 + Sao Jose defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sao Jose scores more
42%
level
33%
Sao Bento scores more
25%

Sao Jose at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
Rogério Campos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Jose vs Sao Bento

Sao Bento beat Sao Jose 1-0 in Serie D on July 17, 2016.

Goals: Rogério Campos (90').

The match was played at Estádio do Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul).