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Sao Bento vs Sao Jose — Serie D 2026

Sao Bento
Sao Bento
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
Tiago Tremonti 12'
6/12/2016Serie DSerie D · Round 1Centro de Integração Comunitário Walter Ribeiro (Sorocaba, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sao Bento31%
×Draw34%
Sao Jose35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Bento
0.83
Sao Jose
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sao Bento
0.80
Sao Jose
1.09

allows per match

Sao Bento
0.70
Sao Jose
0.87

finishing

Sao Bento+0.00on par
Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 75Over: 2575%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Bento ↓

Sao Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sao Bento or draw
65%
Sao Bento or Sao Jose
66%
Draw or Sao Jose
69%

Winning margin

Sao Bento wins by 2+
10%
Sao Jose wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sao Bento 1+ goals
56%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
20%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
5%
Sao Jose 1+ goals
59%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
23%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sao Bento (draw refunded)
47%
Sao Jose (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Bento at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Bento attack 0.80 + Sao Jose defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sao Jose attack 1.09 + Sao Bento defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sao Bento scores more
31%
level
34%
Sao Jose scores more
35%

Sao Jose at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Tiago Tremonti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Bento 1 – 0 Sao Jose

Sao Bento beat Sao Jose 1-0 in Serie D on June 12, 2016.

Goals: Tiago Tremonti (12').

The match was played at Centro de Integração Comunitário Walter Ribeiro (Sorocaba, São Paulo).