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Sao Jose vs Novo Hamburgo — Serie D 2018

Sao Jose
Sao Jose
Pens
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Novo Hamburgo
Novo Hamburgo
6/9/2018Serie DSerie D · 16th FinalsEstádio do Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sao Jose47%
×Draw30%
Novo Hamburgo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose
1.23
Novo Hamburgo
0.78

Sao Jose creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sao Jose
1.23
Novo Hamburgo
0.78

allows per match

Sao Jose
0.77
Novo Hamburgo
1.22

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par
Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

Novo Hamburgo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw
76%
Sao Jose or Novo Hamburgo
70%
Draw or Novo Hamburgo
53%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+
21%
Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals
71%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
35%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
13%
Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals
54%
Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals
18%
Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)
67%
Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 1.23 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Sao Jose defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sao Jose scores more
47%
level
30%
Novo Hamburgo scores more
24%

Sao Jose at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Jose vs Novo Hamburgo

Sao Jose beat Novo Hamburgo 1-0 in Serie D on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio do Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul).