Novo Hamburgo 2–1 Sao Jose: Result & Stats

Novo Hamburgo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sao Jose

6/4/2018

Serie D · 16th FinalsEstádio do Vale (Novo Hamburgo, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Novo Hamburgo30%

×Draw28%

Sao Jose42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novo HamburgoExpected goals in this matchSao Jose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.30

Novo Hamburgo

1.06

Sao Jose

1.30

Sao Jose creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

1.26

creates per match

1.14

1.47

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Novo Hamburgo

1.26

Sao Jose

1.14

allows per match

Novo Hamburgo

1.47

Sao Jose

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novo Hamburgo ↓

Sao Jose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Novo Hamburgo or draw

58%

Novo Hamburgo or Sao Jose

72%

Draw or Sao Jose

70%

Winning margin

Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+

12%

Sao Jose wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals

65%

Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals

29%

Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals

9%

Sao Jose 1+ goals

73%

Sao Jose 2+ goals

37%

Sao Jose 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)

42%

Sao Jose (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novo Hamburgo at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novo Hamburgo attack 1.26 + Sao Jose defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sao Jose attack 1.14 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Novo Hamburgo scores more

30%

level

28%

Sao Jose scores more

42%

Sao Jose at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff