Sao Jose 0–0 BOA: Result & Stats | Serie C

Sao Jose

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BOA

9/12/2020

Serie C · Round 6Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sao Jose53%

×Draw27%

BOA20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao JoseExpected goals in this matchBOA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.79

Sao Jose

1.46

BOA

0.79

Sao Jose creates 85% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 18 away

1.42

creates per match

0.78

0.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sao Jose

1.42

BOA

0.78

allows per match

Sao Jose

0.80

BOA

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par

BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

BOA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw

80%

Sao Jose or BOA

73%

Draw or BOA

47%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+

27%

BOA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals

77%

Sao Jose 2+ goals

43%

Sao Jose 3+ goals

18%

BOA 1+ goals

55%

BOA 2+ goals

19%

BOA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)

72%

BOA (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

BOA away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 1.42 + BOA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

BOA attack 0.78 + Sao Jose defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sao Jose scores more

53%

level

27%

BOA scores more

20%

Sao Jose at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Gonzalo← Lissandro

61'

Gustavo Xuxa← Tiago Pará

62'

Willian Gaúcho← Tauã Belo

68'

Crystopher← Vítor Júnior

76'

Felippe← Denis Custodio

76'

Marcos Paulo← Jefferson

85'

Claudeci← Dieguinho

89'

Thayllon← Tcharles

Sao

BOA

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Everton Vanoni

61'▲Gonzalo←▼Lissandro

61'▲Gustavo Xuxa←▼Tiago Pará

68'▲Crystopher←▼Vítor Júnior

89'▲Thayllon←▼Tcharles

Sao Jose substitutes

GonzaloXuxaCrystopherThayllonVillaGuedesPauloDeniroPedra

Manager: Sidney Moraes

62'▲Willian Gaúcho←▼Tauã Belo

76'▲Felippe←▼Denis Custodio

76'▲Marcos Paulo←▼Jefferson

85'▲Claudeci←▼Dieguinho

BOA substitutes

GaúchoFelippePauloClaudeciRochaCesinhaGabrielKallylIndio

Serie C: Sao Jose 0–0 BOA

Sao Jose and BOA drew 0-0 in Serie C on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Sao Jose vs BOA — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Sao Jose 0–0 BOA