BOA 1–0 Sao Jose: Result & Stats | Serie C

BOA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sao Jose

Jefferson 64'

11/16/2020

Serie C · Round 15Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BOA46%

×Draw28%

Sao Jose26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchSao Jose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.93

BOA

1.32

Sao Jose

0.93

BOA creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 59 away

1.06

creates per match

1.02

0.83

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

BOA

1.06

Sao Jose

1.02

allows per match

BOA

0.83

Sao Jose

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Sao Jose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

BOA or draw

74%

BOA or Sao Jose

72%

Draw or Sao Jose

54%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

21%

Sao Jose wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

73%

BOA 2+ goals

38%

BOA 3+ goals

15%

Sao Jose 1+ goals

61%

Sao Jose 2+ goals

24%

Sao Jose 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

63%

Sao Jose (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.06 + Sao Jose defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sao Jose attack 1.02 + BOA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

BOA scores more

46%

level

28%

Sao Jose scores more

26%

BOA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

Marcao

45+1'

Ítalo← Lúcio Flávio

45+1'

Maicon Souza← Wesley

56'

Jefferson← Pedro Acorsi

60'

Felipe Guedes← Cláudio Maradona

60'

Gustavo Xuxa← Luiz Eduardo

64'

Jefferson

73'

Nonoca← Dieguinho

74'

Gabriel← Lissandro

86'

Crystopher← Diguinho

86'

Tcharles← Márcio Jonatan

BOA

Sao

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ariel Mamede

45+1'▲Ítalo←▼Lúcio Flávio

45+1'▲Maicon Souza←▼Wesley

56'▲Jefferson←▼Pedro Acorsi

73'▲Nonoca←▼Dieguinho

BOA substitutes

ÍtaloSouzaJeffersonNonocaPascoalCearáPauloMarcioSulGaúchoAlmeida

Manager: China Balbino

60'▲Felipe Guedes←▼Cláudio Maradona

60'▲Gustavo Xuxa←▼Luiz Eduardo

74'▲Gabriel←▼Lissandro

86'▲Crystopher←▼Diguinho

86'▲Tcharles←▼Márcio Jonatan

Sao Jose substitutes

GuedesXuxaGabrielCrystopherTcharlesVillaAlexandreLimaWagner

Serie C: BOA 1–0 Sao Jose

BOA beat Sao Jose 1-0 in Serie C on November 16, 2020.

Goals: Jefferson (64').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.

BOA vs Sao Jose — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: BOA 1–0 Sao Jose