São José MA 0–1 Lago Verde: Result & Stats

São José MA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lago Verde

9/20/2025

Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 3Estádio Biran Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

São José MA10%

×Draw24%

Lago Verde66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São José MAExpected goals in this matchLago Verde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.42

1.58

São José MA

0.42

Lago Verde

1.58

Lago Verde creates 276% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.33

creates per match

2.00

1.17

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

São José MA

0.33

Lago Verde

2.00

allows per match

São José MA

1.17

Lago Verde

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São José MA+0.00on par

Lago Verde+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José MA ↓

Lago Verde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–121%

0–217%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

São José MA or draw

34%

São José MA or Lago Verde

76%

Draw or Lago Verde

90%

Winning margin

São José MA wins by 2+

2%

Lago Verde wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

São José MA 1+ goals

34%

São José MA 2+ goals

7%

São José MA 3+ goals

1%

Lago Verde 1+ goals

79%

Lago Verde 2+ goals

47%

Lago Verde 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

São José MA (draw refunded)

13%

Lago Verde (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José MA at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Lago Verde away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José MA attack 0.33 + Lago Verde defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Lago Verde attack 2.00 + São José MA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

São José MA scores more

10%

level

24%

Lago Verde scores more

66%

Lago Verde at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff