Lago Verde 4–0 São José MA: Result & Stats

Lago Verde

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

São José MA

10/1/2025

Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 6Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lago Verde64%

×Draw18%

São José MA18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lago VerdeExpected goals in this matchSão José MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.21

Lago Verde

2.43

São José MA

1.21

Lago Verde creates 101% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.86

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lago Verde

2.86

São José MA

1.13

allows per match

Lago Verde

1.29

São José MA

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lago Verde+0.00on par

São José MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lago Verde ↓

São José MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Lago Verde or draw

82%

Lago Verde or São José MA

82%

Draw or São José MA

36%

Winning margin

Lago Verde wins by 2+

42%

São José MA wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lago Verde 1+ goals

91%

Lago Verde 2+ goals

69%

Lago Verde 3+ goals

43%

São José MA 1+ goals

70%

São José MA 2+ goals

34%

São José MA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lago Verde (draw refunded)

78%

São José MA (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lago Verde at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

São José MA away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lago Verde attack 2.86 + São José MA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

São José MA attack 1.13 + Lago Verde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lago Verde scores more

64%

level

18%

São José MA scores more

18%

Lago Verde at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff