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São José MA vs IAPE — Maranhense - 2 2026

São José MA
São José MA
FT
0 – 0
IAPE
IAPE
10/26/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São José MA10%
×Draw30%
IAPE60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São José MA
0.33
IAPE
1.25

IAPE creates 279% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

São José MA
0.33
IAPE
1.33

allows per match

São José MA
1.17
IAPE
0.33

finishing

São José MA+0.00on par
IAPE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 79Over: 2179%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 80Yes: 2080%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José MA ↓

IAPE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–126%
0–216%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (26%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

São José MA or draw
40%
São José MA or IAPE
70%
Draw or IAPE
90%

Winning margin

São José MA wins by 2+
1%
IAPE wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

São José MA 1+ goals
28%
São José MA 2+ goals
4%
São José MA 3+ goals
0%
IAPE 1+ goals
71%
IAPE 2+ goals
36%
IAPE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

São José MA (draw refunded)
14%
IAPE (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José MA at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

IAPE away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José MA attack 0.33 + IAPE defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

IAPE attack 1.33 + São José MA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

São José MA scores more
10%
level
30%
IAPE scores more
60%

IAPE at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São José MA vs IAPE

São José MA and IAPE drew 0-0 in Maranhense - 2 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.