IAPE 3–0 São José MA: Result & Stats

IAPE

FT

3 – 0

São José MA

11/11/2024

Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IAPE79%

×Draw13%

São José MA8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IAPEExpected goals in this matchSão José MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.81

IAPE

2.88

São José MA

0.81

IAPE creates 256% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

3.75

creates per match

1.13

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

IAPE

3.75

São José MA

1.13

allows per match

IAPE

0.50

São José MA

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IAPE+0.00on par

São José MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IAPE ↓

São José MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

IAPE or draw

92%

IAPE or São José MA

87%

Draw or São José MA

21%

Winning margin

IAPE wins by 2+

59%

São José MA wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

IAPE 1+ goals

94%

IAPE 2+ goals

78%

IAPE 3+ goals

54%

São José MA 1+ goals

56%

São José MA 2+ goals

19%

São José MA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

IAPE (draw refunded)

91%

São José MA (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IAPE at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

São José MA away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IAPE attack 3.75 + São José MA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

São José MA attack 1.13 + IAPE defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

IAPE scores more

79%

level

13%

São José MA scores more

8%

IAPE at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff